In addition to gold, investment in other types of commodities also fell in the second quarter. Barclays expects that investors withdrew US$2.1 billion from the commodity index investment in the second quarter. The issuance of medium-term notes, Started precious metals businessa structured investment product linked to commodity prices, is almost invisible. Barclays said that the issuance of medium-term notes in the first half of this year fell to the lowest level since 2004. Barclays expects the outflow of gold ETF funds to continue.
On July 13, the international spot gold price rose to a record high of US$1,589.56 per ounce. As of Wednesday local time in London, the international gold price has risen for 8 consecutive days; if the sun can be closed on Thursday, it will be equal to the continuous sun record in 2006. Yesterday, Au9995 on the Gold Exchange fell slightly to 326.09 yuan/g, and Au9999, Au100g and Au (T+D) rose by 0.7%, 0.9% and 0.7% respectively.
From $1816/oz on September 21 to $1,532/oz yesterday, gold fell by as much as 15% in just four trading days. Although gold and silver have fallen sharply, the public's enthusiasm for buying gold has not diminished, and investors have even entered the market to buy the bottom. Jiao Guangyi, deputy general manager of the Sun Gold Store, said that the sales of gold jewellery and gold bars in the gold store increased last weekend. Many buyers who invest in gold bullion think that the current price is already low and suitable for intervention; there are also some buyers who bought it at the previous high price and bought it again to spread the cost. He suggested that investors, the current gold market volatility is huge, investors try to buy in batches to reduce the risk of gold price fluctuations.
On the 18th, the World Gold Council (WGC) released a report on gold demand trends for the second quarter of 2011, stating that the demand for gold in the second quarter of India was eye-catching, and the two countries’ purchases accounted for more than half of the world. In the same period, the global central bank's net purchases of gold reached 69.4 tons, an increase of more than 4 times compared with the same period last year. WGC predicts that under the circumstances of strong demand in China and India, safe-haven demand caused by financial market turmoil and the central bank's net purchase, global gold demand will remain strong in the second half of the year, and prices will continue to rise.
ANZ Bank (ANZ) analysts pointed out that as the end of the quarter approaches, gold prices are still facing further downside risks. The bank said that in the last two weeks of the third and fourth quarters of last year, gold was under selling pressure from hedge funds. However, the good performance of the stock market in the first quarter of this year may ease the pressure on funds to sell gold.
In addition, starting from June 20thStarted precious metals business, the deposit reserve ratio has been raised again by 0.5 percentage points. The deposit reserve ratio of large banks reached 21.5%, a record high, and banks have less available funds. In this context, it is more difficult for the jewelry industry, which is dominated by SMEs, to obtain bank loans.
In terms of investment form, this year's overall strategy requires caution. Precious metals, especially gold, can reflect its value as an important species for hedging during periods of relative economic turmoil. Cai Zhiqiang believes that, compared with other investment products, precious metals should still be valued next year, and the market is worth looking forward to, but next year’s rise may not be as sharp as the previous rise, and it is impossible to see a unilateral rise like the previous two years. The trend of next year is more likely to be closely related to the trend of the US dollar, and the overall trend is relatively wide. Therefore, predicting investment next year, Cai Zhiqiang believes that we should focus on the US dollar, pay attention to gold, and invest cautiously.
However, Guo Bosi, managing director of the Investment Department of the World Gold Council, pointed out that India and India are still the two largest gold demand countries in the world. Although the Indian government has introduced measures to curb demand for gold, consumers still have strong confidence in gold, which once again proves the status of gold in Indian society. India's financial system is underdeveloped, and gold plays an important role in it.