According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold investment demand surged 70% in 2016, setting a four-year high. In addition, from a technical point of view, this wave of rising gold prices is still going on. The approach of March and April heralds the start of concentrated European elections. Numerous uncertainties will support the rise of gold prices in the short term. International gold prices rose to US$Sell precious metals1,290 in the second quarter. Will become a high probability event. Finally, we suggest that investors should consider the medium and long-term perspective when buying gold investment, not too much about short-term price fluctuations. Gold is the only internationally recognized asset in human society that can break through geographical restrictions, language barriers, religious beliefs, cultural background, education, emotional differences and even time and space barriers.
As expectations for a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy heat up globally, gold has once again gained the favor of investors. International spot gold rose strongly last Friday, breaking through $1,730 per ounce in one fell swoop, reaching a maximum of $1,741.30 per ounce, setting a new high in the past six months. As the US economic data continues to be sluggish and the euro exchange rate rebounds, can international gold prices challenge the previous highs and form a new round of gains? [Gold and silver prices start to rise relay] Following the recent sharp rise in international silver prices, international gold prices have once again taken over the rising baton. Last Thursday, under the influence of the European Central Bank's strong bond purchase plan, the spot price of gold broke through the 1,710 mark in one fell swoop, reaching a maximum of 1,713 US dollars per ounce. In this regard, gold analyst Zhao Xiangbin told reporters that this bond purchase plan prevented the rapid disintegration of the euro and quickly pushed the euro higher in the foreign exchange market, and the rebound of the euro suppressed the trend of the dollar. It is also transmitted to the international gold price, stimulating the price of gold to rise. One day later, the latest economic data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the non-agricultural employment population in the US increased by 96,000 in August, far below the market's expectation of 125,000. Affected by this, the international spot gold price quickly broke through the 1,730 U.S. dollar/ounce mark that day, closing at 1,736.50 U.S. dollars/ounce, an increase of 36.40 U.S. dollars or 2.14% from the previous trading day. The international market has rekindled enthusiasm for gold, and gold ETF funds have recently continued to increase their positions. The world's largest gold trust SPDRGoldTrust has continued to increase its gold positions since the end of July this year. In August, it attracted nearly US$2 billion in inflows, setting a record for the largest single-month inflow of the ETF, and it rose to a record 2044 tons last Thursday. Increase holdings by more than 38 tons. [Quantitative easing expectations are the main reason] As for the reasons for the continuous rise in international gold prices, Zhao Xiangbin analyzed that the primary reason is the global economic downturn, especially the weak recovery of the US economy. Since the financial crisis, the United States has carried out two rounds of quantitative easing, and carried out two reversal operations last year and this year, injecting currency into the market, but the results were not satisfactory. Therefore, the market has expectations for the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States, which is reflected by pushing up the price of gold; secondly, emerging economies that once played a significant role in stimulating the global economy are also experiencing problems. The world is now lacking an economy. There is a growth engine, or there is a lack of major economies that can support economic growth; third, the global demand for physical gold has grown relatively fast, and emerging countries have adjusted the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to gold, which intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in the international gold market. The shortage of gold has stimulated the rise in the price of gold; fourthly, it is a seasonal factor. There is a seasonal rise in September and October every year, and from September last year to September this year, the price of gold has been relatively low. , It took too long to adjust at the bottom and accumulated a lot of upward force, which caused an explosive rebound. Fifth, due to the continuous upward impact of global commodity prices, as gold is more sensitive to resisting inflationary pressures, if commodity prices If it continues to rise, it may push up inflation, which is also a supporting factor for the rise in gold prices. Gold is still in a bull market, and it has relatively strong rising demand. Zhang Bingnan, vice president of the Gold Association, told our reporter that gold has a very important function, which is to combat credit risks. The core of this round of financial crisis is credit risk, so before this round of financial crisis is over, the fundamental motivation of the gold bull market will not stop. But this year, gold has been suppressed by the euro more obviously, and it has accumulated an upward momentum, which is the most fundamental reason. Coupled with the market’s expectations for the third round of quantitative easing in the United States, East Asia and South Asia have entered a period of strong demand, and governments’ demand for gold reserves continues to grow. These factors have contributed to the continued increase in gold prices. [It is expected to continue the upward trend in the future] Whether international gold prices can continue to refresh their previous highs depends on whether the third round of quantitative easing in the United States can be launched as scheduled. Zhang Bingnan believes that if the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-September can clearly launch QE3, gold will definitely have an accelerated rise. If QE3 is not explicitly launched, there may be a certain callback, but overall, the overall price of gold in this fall will remain unchanged. Optimistic attitude. Zhang Bingnan emphasized that too much chasing high is also risky, but at the current price of about $1,700, there is still a certain investment value. Zhao Xiangbin believes that the trend of gold prices later this year will also depend on the situation in the United States. The US government’s credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s due to the debt ceiling last year. Although it will not be downgraded again this year, if the US debt ceiling exceeds $16 trillion, it will still become a time bomb. Therefore, for the rest of this year, the international gold price is expected to reach near last year's high. This is an optimistic forecast. If you are more optimistic, it may even exceed the level of $2,000 per ounce. Therefore, we are optimistic about the future trend of gold prices.
The advent of gold funds provides domestic investors with an effective investment tool to participate in gold investment. Compared with physical gold and paper gold, gold funds have lower participation thresholds and more convenient trading. Experts in the fund industry commented. According to reports, China Universal Gold and Precious Metals Fund invests in exchange-traded funds (ETF) backed by physical gold or other physical precious metals. The investment scope covers precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium, which makes it the current market. The first precious metal fund product on the market. Harvest Gold Fund mainly invests in overseas gold ETFs, especially gold ETFs backed by physical gold. According to reports, overseas gold ETFs cleverly combine physical gold attributes and securities attributes to provide gold investment tools with low costs, convenient transactions, and high liquidity. It is a mainstream gold investment product that tracks international gold prices internationally.
Gold closed close to flat on Friday. Investors researched and judged that the signal sent by Russia on the Ukraine issue puzzled all parties in the market and the US economic data was bright. Actively traded June gold futures on the New York futures market closed down $0.1, with a settlement price of $1,287.60 per ounce. The silver contract for July delivery closed at $19.121 per ounce, down 1.7 cents, and the trading range for the entire day was between $19.045 and $19.315.
Regarding the nature of the gold price adjustment, market views vary. Some pessimistic market participants believe that the cumulative increase in gold prices is huge and the profit is generous. This wave of decline is a correction to the previous gains and may indicate that the gold bull market has come to an end. Investors should stay on the sidelines as well.
Fundamentally, housing starts in the United States increased by 14.6% in June, with an annual rate of 629,000 households, the highest growth rate since January; Germany’s ZEW current stSell precious metalsatus index was 90.6. Better-than-expected economic data boosted risk sentiment. At the same time, US President Barack Obama expressed support for the new fiscal deficit reduction plan proposed by the two parties and said that the differences between the two parties are diminishing, which to a certain extent eased the US debt ceiling after the expiration. Worries about debt default will occur. Investors dumped safe-haven products such as gold, silver and Swiss francs, and funds flowed into the stock market.
From the perspective of the disk, since August 5, the rapid rise in the price of gold has mostly occurred during the Asian session, and on the eve of the domestic opening, which makes people have to pay attention to the factor of Japan. The Bank of Japan intervenes in the foreign exchange market and buys a large number of US Treasury bonds. It is inherently very risky. There is a greater risk of betting on the United States alone, so its central bank may be buying gold. The other is that the Bank of Korea is also buying gold. Both of these are US allies in Asia. If they are worried about systemic risks, then this logic can be established.
A few days ago, the 2011 Financial Security Summit Forum and the 3rd Blue Ocean Secret Sword Futures Real Offer Competition Awarding Ceremony hosted by China Eastern Finance was held. The well-known economist and author of "Currency War" Song Hongbing and Air Force Major General Qiao Liang, Professor of Strategy at the Air Force Command Academy gave a keynote speech.
In addition, the government work report proposed: high-quality joint construction of the'Belt and Road'. Adhere to extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, follow market principles and internationally accepted rules, give full play to the role of the main body of the enterprise, and carry out mutually beneficial cooperation. Guide the healthy development of foreign investment. Promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Firmly safeguard the multilateral trading system and actively participate in WTO reforms. Promote the signing of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreements and advance China-Japan-Korea free trade negotiations. Jointly implement the first phase of China-US economic and trade agreement. Committed to strengthening economic and trade cooperation with other countries to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.